Option 2: Probabilities of Graduation and Publication

Instructions

Professors have hundreds of students in their classes each year. Some professors teach only upper-division courses to students who are in their major course of study. Of this group of students, some will graduate and some will be published.

In the following study, three different universities have been tracking a select group of professors over the course of their employment at that university to determine the number of students who are in a particular professor’s classes, how many of those students have graduated, and if any of them have had their work published. In the attached Excel file, Probabilities, are the totals for each of the professors at the three different universities that participated in the study.

The purpose of this study is to find the probabilities of graduation and publication for the students in the different professors’ courses. While a causal relationship may not be found between a professor and student graduation or publication, we need to rank the professors based on the different probabilities found with the data sets as described below.

Prepare a report (see below) with your ranking of the professors based on the probabilities and conditional probabilities as well as the analysis of each university. Include the following seven (7) items in table format which is provided in the Probabilities file to support your ranking.

Note: Be sure to use five (5) decimal places for your probabilities in the table, as some of them will be quite small. Do not convert to percentages as we are interested in probabilities only here.

The overall probability of students graduating at each of the three universities.

The overall probability of students having a publication at each of the three universities.

The overall probability of students having a publication, given that they graduated at each of the three universities.

The probability of a student graduating for each professor.

The probability of a student having a publication for each professor.

The probability of a student having a publication given that they graduated for each professor.

Rank the professors within each university for each of the probabilities in 4–6. Then find the sum of the ranks and determine an overall ranking for each professor.

Be sure to critically analyze the above calculations in your body paragraphs, explaining how you found each type of probability and then the results you obtained. Be sure to also explain your criteria for ranking in steps 4–7, and defend why you chose that ranking method—as your way might not be the typical method.University/College Professor/Instructor

J.W. Blake

WWCC

K.R. Cunningham

R.H. Doughty

L.M. Edwards

W.H. Greiner

I.D. Jackson

O.P. Lawson

G.F. Nelson

A.F. Paul

D.K. Raulson

T.R. South

E.A. Thomas

C.F. Viney

F.E. Yousef

Totals

Number Students Taught Graduated Publications

1956

1545

711

1102

981

373

1911

1682

606

419

402

201

2133

2133

768

646

581

203

864

812

219

1049

797

279

1039

1039

509

889

747

187

2890

2254

1082

2923

2777

861

1984

1567

642

2704

2352

847

EWCC

A.D. Blaise

I.A. Frank

S.D. Gundel

P.O. Hogan

W.M. Kraft

L.I. Luebbers

J.H. Nye

J.A. O’Dell

R.W. Pauly

K.G. Ross

D.S. Smith

J.P. Trost

M.M. Wall

Totals

247

2613

1813

1052

1270

2248

2330

286

751

153

126

2510

2629

188

2247

1523

926

1041

1866

1841

277

593

122

105

2159

2103

83

629

655

389

396

653

865

105

208

54

40

1015

904

NWCC

D.H. Allen

T.G. Black

M.A. Carter

M.P. Drake

J.K. Elmsworth

P.T. Grey

C.R. Heines

D.R. Jones

B.M. Keith

G.H. Matheson

P.R. Neighbors

S.T. Orion

A.P. Tracey

Totals

902

2842

2660

2595

2480

751

1489

605

165

2588

2991

1438

2542

731

2671

2234

2206

2381

646

1266

496

153

1941

2572

1337

2262

183

1336

603

949

667

207

582

164

47

679

900

508

927

P(Graduated) Rank by P(G) P(Publications) Rank by P(P) P(P|G) Rank by P(P|G)

Sum of Ranks Overall Rank

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